Budgeting, Forecasting & Cost Control

Budgeting, Forecasting & Cost Control

Target Group
Programme managers, project officers, non-finance managers, procurement officers, supervisors, and officers responsible for operational budgets and programme delivery.

Duration
2 Days (14 training hours)

Training Methodology
Practical workshops, guided exercises, group simulations, public-sector case studies, facilitated discussions, and hands-on budgeting tools.

Course Objectives

By the end of this programme, participants will be able to:

• Prepare realistic operational and programme budgets
• Understand and apply basic forecasting techniques
• Analyse budget variances and identify root causes
• Propose practical cost control measures without encouraging “budget cutting” behaviour

Learning Outcomes

Participants will be able to:

• Build and defend an operational or programme budget
• Apply forecasting techniques to manage uncertainty
• Analyse variances and identify cost drivers
• Propose realistic cost control actions aligned with programme outcomes

DAY 1 – Budget Preparation & Forecasting Fundamentals

Module 1: Budgeting in the Public Sector Context

• Purpose of budgeting beyond “spending allocation”
• Budgeting as a planning, control, and accountability tool
• Common budgeting weaknesses highlighted in audit reports
• Roles of non-finance officers in budget integrity

Module 2: Activity-Based Budgeting for Programmes

• Traditional budgeting vs activity-based budgeting
• Linking activities to outputs and outcomes
• Identifying direct and indirect costs
• Cost allocation across programmes and initiatives

Module 3: Budget Preparation & Justification

• Building a defensible programme budget
• Assumptions, cost drivers, and documentation
• Common mistakes in budget justification
• Preparing budgets that withstand scrutiny

Module 4: Forecasting Techniques for Non-Finance Managers

• Budget vs forecast – what’s the difference?
• Rolling forecasts and why they matter
• Updating forecasts during uncertainty
• Using forecasts for decision-making

DAY 2 – Variance Analysis, Cost Control & Simulation

Module 5: Variance Analysis & Investigation

• What variance analysis really tells management
• Favourable vs unfavourable variances
• Investigating variance causes (price, volume, timing)
• When variances become audit red flags

Module 6: Practical Cost Control Levers

• Cost control vs cost cutting (important distinction)
• Identifying controllable vs non-controllable costs
• Prioritising spending under budget constraints
• Managing cost pressures without impacting outcomes

Module 7: Contingency Planning & Funding Adjustments

• Planning for funding cuts and delays
• Managing programme scope under financial pressure
• Making trade-offs transparently and defensibly
• Documenting decisions for audit purposes

Module 8: Integrated Budgeting Workshop (Capstone)

• Bringing together budgeting, forecasting, and cost control
• Decision-making under constrained resources
• Presenting budget adjustments clearly to management

Capstone Group Exercise:
Teams:

• Create a 12-month budget for a replanting programme or entrepreneurship incubator
• Perform variance analysis
• Respond to a simulated 10% budget reduction
• Present revised budget and justification